Those of us in marketing rely heavily on numbers to help us determine our best course of action.  Entering November, the challenge is formulating clear pictures from numbers that don’t necessarily line up to tell a simple story.

The devastation of Hurricane Sandy became a game-changer for the most heavily-populated section of our country.  Lost media revenue from Hurricane Sandy is estimated at $500 Million (programming pre-emptions for storm coverage).  Both radio and television stations will want to recoup that revenue.

And while prices at the pump dropped despite Sandy (amid lower demand), new and used car purchases are expected to soar in the next several months.  Tens (and possibly hundreds) of thousands of vehicles were storm-damaged by Sandy to the point of needing to be replaced.  Look for auto dealers and manufacturers to be healthy broadcast spenders over the next 90 days.

Then we have November’s Main Event: Election Day, this coming Tuesday.  Heaven help you if you need to purchase air time in a Swing State between now and Tuesday.  Depending on the outcome – and public perception of whether or not that outcome will be good for our economy – the holiday buying season will likely feel an impact.

Holiday sales forecasts are projected flat – or possibly a slight increase – compared to last year.  So, following a short-breather just after Tuesday’s election, expect the annual holiday rush to kick in.  Retailers – both online and brick-and-mortar – will jostle early to grab their share of consumer spending ahead of Black Friday and Cyber Monday.

Media prices will also creep higher, as stations and networks endeavor to sustain the 6% CPM year-over-year increase registered in October, thanks to high demand during political season.

Expect bigger and longer Sales Events from the retailers.  This year, 73% of consumers expect to find great deals this holiday season, up from 62% last year.  Apparel and downloadable gifts are projected to be the hot items, with gift cards, once again, on the rise.  (Over 80 million shoppers plan to purchase a gift card this year.)  Electronics will stay be a top category, although slightly cooler than last year.

All of these factors and numbers point to a confusing and cluttered marketplace over the next two months.  Advertisers and marketers who have yet to lock in their media time are urged to stop reading – and start booking their schedules.

Mark Lipsky is the President and CEO of The Radio Agency. Please follow The Radio Agency’s Blog “Sounding Board” by subscribing to the email or RSS links above.Visit our website TheRadioAgency.com