Radio 2009 – Trends & Predictions
Tuesday, December 23rd, 2008LOCAL RADIO – Local stations will continue to feel the sting of our troubled economy. Discretionary consumer spending will remain light, resulting in fewer high-ticket advertisers lavishly spending on radio. Local stations will fight for audience share, as alternative means of entertainment continue to siphon off a bit more weekly listening time, while New Media learns how to better target local ad dollars. For some stations, this could mean additional layoffs, more consolidation and/or replacing more local programming with national syndication. Some local stations will buck the trend by monetizing all of their resources (on-air, Internet, sponsorships, street presence) and being accountable to deliver results to their advertisers, beyond just rating points.
MORE DIRECT RESPONSE – According to the Direct Marketing Association Power of Direct Marketing, marketers in 2008 spent 52.1% of their total advertising expenditures on direct response. That number is expected to increase in 2009, as more and more brands turn their focus to return on investment. And while it may seem that more and more radio ads are direct response driven, radio still lags behind the other media in percentage of dollars spent in direct response:
- 91.5% Direct Mail
- 72.5% New Media and other
- 49.1% Telephone
- 49.0% Magazine
- 33.5% Newspaper
- 30.1% Television
- 24.6% Radio
WiFi – Wireless transmission of Internet radio could change everything in the business of radio. Radio receivers that tap into home DSL connections deliver now over 10,000 channels of audio to those who’ve become early adopters. Sanyo recently became the first major electronics company to enter the WiFi radio arena. Chrysler upped the stakes by announcing that WiFi access will become part of its new models, bringing access to thousands of “radio stations” for in-car listening. (Of course, that assumes Chrysler will still be around to build the cars.) How will terrestrial radio compete with web channels that deliver local traffic and weather on demand? How will satellite fare against thousands of specialized music formats that go beyond its capabilities to offer diverse and eclectic programming? Broadcasters will have a short time horizon to solve this large and looming challenge.
ACCOUNTABILITY – As Internet advertising revenues surpassed those of radio in 2008, broadcasters will need to steal a page from the web to stay competitive. The days of brand advertising that just make consumers “feel good” have been supplanted by accountable, measurable direct response campaigns that achieve branding by justifying their expense and using sales revenues to fund the next campaign. CPMs and CPPs make a great starting point, but ROI is the alphabet triplet of tomorrow. Those who wave a ratings book and shout, “We’re #1” will find themselves outflanked and outbilled by stations who work to deliver and guarantee results. Welcome to the future of radio.
SPONSOR EVERYTHING – Beyond traditional spot advertising, we now have radio stations offering title sponsorship their broadcasting studios, in much the same way that sporting arenas sell their names to the highest bidders. “Blinks” insert two-to-five second messages reminiscent of the old “Loingine watch time” announcements of the 1940s. Look for more and more stations to find more and more ways to add clients’ names to everything from their web site to their station van. It’s all incremental revenue and it’s all not about to end anytime soon.
PANDORA’S BOX – Pandora Internet radio service, the free software program that lets users enter their favorite recording artists and create their own radio stations, is the #1 iPhone download application at the iTunes App Store. With 15,000 new downloads a day, an iPhone linked to Pandora and played through a car radio system may pose the next big threat to terrestrial radio. Another year, another potential giant killer.
THE NEXT GREAT PERSONALITIES – Anyone can spin the latest hits and craft an entertaining audio jukebox. But the local stations, satellite stations and streaming stations that will survive and thrive will be built on the strengths of top talent that can command attention and loyalty. For local music stations, this will require plenty of community exposure, making their air personalities hometown heroes on par with the local ball club’s home run hitter. For spoken word programming, the next great masters will break through the pack with an original spin on their genre. Look at how Jim Kramer changed the way we look at Wall Street compared to PBS’ Louis Rukeyser - or how Howard Stern blew away the Morning Zoo concept. Compelling, engaging air talent creates appointment listening. And that brand of excellence is the best deterrent to the wows of new technology.